Recession Is Over But Uncertainty Continues

By Marvin Brodeur

The United Kingdom officially exited the recession according to new data this week from the last quarter of 2009. The country still has not managed to regain its footing and its expected that the economy will continue to struggle in the coming year.

The forecast was slightly more optimistic at the city level where figures showed that there was an expansion of 0.4% over the same period. This figures mark an end to about six months of contraction, which saw the economy shrink by just over 5%.

As the country prepares for another election, this news couldn't have come at a better time for the Labour government under Gordon Brown. A spokesperson for chancellor Alistair Darling said that predictions of growth were coming along as planned. They went on to say that UK citizens could remain confident in the current government's financial planning.

George Osborne, the shadow chancellor said that these numbers were quite meager and that the Labour party had not been prepared for the recession, or the recovery period.

The financial markets in the UK saw losses after hearing about news of the end of the recession. Currencies such as the dollar and the euro went up against Sterling, and gilt futures also went up.

Vince Cable, a Liberal-Democrat spokesman said that he expects the economy to stagger over the next little while. He said that the UK economy was moving in the right direction but not very quickly.

Only a few economists are expecting the UK economy to recover due to the high percentages of government and consumer debt in the country. They also feel that the banking sector is rather fragile due to the events of the last couple years. There are some economists that forecast a quick rise but they are in the minority.

David Frost, director of the UK Chamber of Commerce said that this was a great start but that the UK was still not on the straight and narrow as far as finances were concerned.

There were many economists and analysts around the UK that said the government support measures were responsible for any growth that had occurred and that without the bailouts and budget deficits, the country would be in rough shape.

Economy watchers in the UK say that things will be fragile for a while, especially if any of the government support measures decrease in the coming years. It's expected that growth in 2010 will only be 1% and that it will take a while to get back to regular numbers (2.5%/year).

The department responsible for National Statistics has said that the economic gains in October-December of 2009 show the recession is over but that doesn't mean things are looking up.

ING official, James Knightley said that the United Kingdom had just barely exited the recession and said that retail sales numbers over the final quarter of 2009 were sluggish compared to years past. He said that consumer confidence was also very low and that debt problems were still rampant across the country.

The British Bankers' Association reported that consumer debt repayment was moving very slowly and that personal loan and overdrafts were on the rise. These are all signs that the recession is still taking its toll on the United Kingdom and that it may for some time. - 29866

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